Kenya has initiated a shuttle diplomacy effort to secure the candidature of Raila Odinga, the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition party leader, for the position of Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) in the upcoming elections scheduled for February 2025.

Kenya’s Diplomatic Efforts

The process of securing Odinga’s candidature involves collaboration between the Kenyan presidency, the candidate and his team, the Ministry of Foreign and Diaspora Affairs, and the Eastern Africa Ministers of Foreign Affairs.2The Ministry of East African Community (EAC), under Cabinet Secretary Peninah Malonza, has also been roped in to mobilize support from the EAC partner states.

In a letter dated March 20, 2024, Ms. Malonza wrote to the outgoing EAC Secretary-General, Dr. Peter Mathuki, requesting him to “mobilize the EAC partner States to support the Republic of Kenya” in Odinga’s candidature for the AUC Chairperson position. Dr. Mathuki subsequently wrote to various Eastern Region EAC ministers and their Foreign Affairs counterparts, including Somalia’s Ali Mohamed Omar, emphasizing Kenya’s choice of Odinga as its candidate.

Proposed Candidature and Endorsement

The Kenyan government has officially communicated Odinga’s candidature for the AUC Chairperson position to the EAC Secretary-General. This move is part of the country’s efforts to garner support from regional partners for Odinga’s bid. Former Somalia Foreign Affairs Minister Fawzia Adam has also expressed interest in succeeding the incumbent AUC Chair, Moussa Faki Mahamat. However, the Kenyan government and Odinga’s campaign team are actively engaged in shuttle diplomacy to secure endorsements from individual presidents ahead of the 2025 vote.

Political Warnings and Strategies

Kenyan politicians have been warned against making statements that could jeopardize the country’s prospects of winning the AUC Chairperson position. Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi has cautioned that “what you say may undermine our national interest, don’t just speak as if it is a village agenda.”

The Kenyan government and Odinga’s campaign team are undertaking various strategic measures to enhance their chances of success. These include identifying members of the regional teams, conducting assessments of the operating environment, and identifying potential external influencers such as the United States, France, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Additionally, the campaign is creating a profile of the candidate, Odinga, outlining his vision and mission for the continent, and developing a comprehensive communication strategy, including campaign messaging, media events, and interviews.

Leveraging Multilateral Platforms

Odinga’s campaign team plans to take advantage of various continental and multilateral forums, such as the AU statutory meetings of Heads of States and Governments, ministers’ meetings, the UN General Assembly, Regional Economic Communities (RECs) meetings, AU strategic partner meetings, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), and the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD), to garner support for his candidature.

Potential Roadblocks: Proposed Rule Changes

However, Odinga’s bid for the AUC Chairperson position may face a potential roadblock due to a proposed rule change in the election process. According to the draft report on the “Preparations for the Election of Senior Leadership of the African Union Commission in February 2025,” there is a proposal that “any member state that occupied a position from that region should be ineligible for future elections until all member states of the region served as members of the senior leadership of the commission.” This proposed rule change, if adopted, could potentially make Odinga ineligible to run for the AUC Chairperson position, as Kenya and Rwanda have held the Deputy Chairperson seats since the African Union was created in 2002. The draft report suggests that the next AUC Chairperson should come from the Eastern African region, as per the 2018 decision of the African Union. However, the proposed rule change aims to ensure that countries do not “hog positions” and allow their peers from the neighborhood to have the opportunity.

Reaction and Negotiations

The African Union official who spoke to the Nation newspaper stated that the report will only be adopted as an official AU policy if heads of state and government agree to it. Decisions at the African Union are made by consensus, meaning a single “No” can prevent the decision from becoming formal law. Proponents of the proposed rule change argue that it aims to give all member states the opportunity to front qualified candidates and enhance fairness and gender balance. The draft rules also suggest that each region will determine its own formula on how to use the ranking established based on the English Alphabetical order to nominate candidates for the portfolios for which a region is eligible. However, the proposed rules also state that all senior posts in the Commission are restricted, and regions will be ineligible to submit candidates for portfolios not allocated to them in accordance. This means that the Eastern region, where Kenya is located, will be allowed to compete for the Chairperson position, but will have to let only Northern African countries go for the Deputy Chairperson.

Potential Ineligibility and Regional Implications

If the proposed rule changes are adopted, it could make Kenya, and by extension, Raila Odinga, ineligible to compete for the AUC Chairperson position, as the Eastern region has already held the Deputy Chairperson seat for four terms. The draft rules are still subject to debate, but the drafters have given regions leeway in deciding a pre-selection process for their candidates “based on modalities to be determined by the region.” This suggests that the Eastern region, including Kenya, will need to navigate the complex negotiations to ensure Odinga’s candidature remains viable.

Historical Precedents and Proposed Reforms

The Central region of Africa has dominated the Chairperson seat, holding it for three terms, including two by the incumbent Moussa Faki Mahamat of Chad. The report suggests that the representation of regions and member states in each senior leadership position of the Commission lacks equitable representation and has limited rotation both between regions and within a region. The proposed reforms aim to address these imbalances, with the 2018 rules stating that the regions from which the Chairperson and the Deputy Chairperson are appointed shall not be eligible for consideration for the six remaining Commissioner posts. The other three regions shall be entitled to two Commissioners each, “equally distributed by gender.”

Selection Process and Qualifications

The selection process for the AUC Chairperson and Commissioners involves three levels: a regional nomination, a selection panel that will vet academic and other qualifications, and then the final election. The AU has set specific criteria for the Chairperson and their deputies, requiring them to be “competent women or men with proven experience in the relevant field, commensurate leadership qualities, and a good track record in government, parliament, international organizations or other relevant sectors of society.”

Measures Undertaken by Raila Odinga’s Campaign Team

Raila Odinga’s campaign team is undertaking several strategic measures to enhance their chances of success in the bid for the Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC):

• Identifying Regional Teams: The campaign team is identifying members of the regional teams that will be involved in the efforts to secure support for Odinga’s candidature.

• Conducting Assessments: They are conducting assessments of the operating environment to understand the dynamics and potential challenges they may face.

• Identifying External Influencers: The campaign team is identifying possible key external influencers, such as the United States, France, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), who could have a significant influence on the election process.

• Creating Candidate Profile and Vision: The campaign is creating a profile of the candidate, Raila Odinga, outlining his vision and mission for the continent.

• Developing Communication Strategy: The team is developing a comprehensive communication strategy, including campaign messaging, media events, and interviews to effectively communicate Odinga’s candidature and vision.

• Leveraging Multilateral Platforms: Odinga’s campaign team plans to take advantage of various continental and multilateral forums, such as the AU statutory meetings of Heads of States and Governments, ministers’ meetings, the UN General Assembly, Regional Economic Communities (RECs) meetings, AU strategic partner meetings, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), and the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD), to garner support for his candidature.Engaging in Shuttle Diplomacy: The Kenyan government and Odinga’s campaign team are actively engaged in shuttle diplomacy to secure endorsements from individual presidents ahead of the 2025 vote.

Communication Channels and Platforms Utilized by Odinga’s Campaign Team

Raila Odinga’s campaign team is planning to utilize a variety of communication channels and platforms to effectively communicate his candidature and vision for the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson position:

• Social Media Platforms:
  • The team is focusing heavily on social media platforms, such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, and Snapchat, to reach a wide audience and interact with supporters.
  • They are using these platforms to curate and distribute content that promotes Odinga’s agenda and agenda.
  • The team has assembled a group of digital strategists, bloggers, and content creators to manage the social media presence and messaging.
• Mainstream Media:
  • The campaign team is also utilizing mainstream media channels, such as television, radio, and print, to amplify Odinga’s message and reach a broader audience.
  • They are arranging media events, interviews, and press conferences to provide Odinga with a platform to communicate his vision and qualifications.
• Multilateral Forums:
  • Odinga’s team plans to leverage various continental and international forums, such as the AU statutory meetings, the UN General Assembly, and regional economic community gatherings, to engage with key stakeholders and garner support for his candidature.
  • These platforms will allow Odinga to directly interact with African heads of state, government officials, and other influential figures to pitch his vision and build consensus.
• Targeted Outreach:
  • The campaign is also focusing on direct outreach and engagement with specific groups, such as former heads of state, ministers, academics, and media personalities, to amplify Odinga’s message and secure their endorsement.