​The 2024 South African general election will be a pivotal moment in the country’s political landscape, with the ruling African National Congress (ANC) facing its toughest challenge in 30 years. The election will determine the composition of the 400-seat National Assembly, which in turn will elect the country’s president.

The African National Congress (ANC)

The ANC, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, has dominated South African politics since the end of apartheid in 1994. However, the party’s popularity has been steadily declining, with polls suggesting it may fail to secure a majority for the first time. Ramaphosa, a former senior figure in the ANC and protégé of Nelson Mandela, has attempted to rebuild the party’s reputation by cracking down on government corruption. However, persistent issues such as high unemployment, power outages, and poverty have damaged the ANC’s reputation and public trust.

Despite these challenges, the ANC remains the most dominant political force in the country. The party has promised to create millions of new jobs, boost investment, support the private sector, and end corruption.

The Democratic Alliance (DA)

The Democratic Alliance (DA) is the main opposition party, led by John Steenhuisen. The centrist party has promised to “rescue” South Africa from the ANC’s perceived corruption and mismanagement. The DA has entered into a pre-election agreement with smaller opposition parties, hoping to clinch a majority and remove the ANC from power. However, significant gains would be required for this coalition to succeed.

The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF)

The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by the fiery Julius Malema, has emerged as the third-largest party in Parliament. The EFF advocates for radical economic solutions, including the nationalization of mines, banks, and other key industries. Malema’s message that the ANC has failed to address the needs of poor, Black South Africans has gained traction, especially among the unemployed and disaffected youth.

Jacob Zuma and the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) Party

Former President Jacob Zuma, who was ousted by Ramaphosa amid corruption allegations, has added a new dimension to the election by forming the Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party. The MK party, which has taken its name from the ANC’s former armed wing, is expected to further erode the ANC’s vote, especially in Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal. Zuma’s political acumen and the potential for unrest from his supporters could also complicate the election process.

Coalition Government: A Likely Outcome

With the ANC’s support predicted to drop below 50%, a coalition government is a likely outcome. The ANC may need to form partnerships with smaller parties to maintain its dominance, while other parties could also attempt to form coalitions to unseat the ruling party. The prospect of an ANC coalition with more radical parties, such as the EFF, is a concern for investors and the country’s privileged white minority. However, the constitution has clear rules for coalition building, and South Africa’s robust legal system could help manage the transition.

Ultimately, the 2024 election will be a pivotal moment in South Africa’s democratic journey, with the potential for significant changes in the country’s political landscape. Regardless of the outcome, the new government will need to prioritize unity, economic growth, and development to address the country’s pressing challenges.